Much has been said over the past few weeks about the fatal, tactical missteps made by Hillary Clinton's campaign. These include a troubling lack of caucus know-how, an overabundance of underestimating the competition, and shortsightedness in long-term planning for the primary season.
After tonight's Oregon primary, it seems likely that more autopsic observations such as these are in store for tomorrow. But if there is one component of Clinton's operation that does not deserve the label "pathological," it would be her religious outreach unit; it was one of the bright spots in an otherwise disappointing effort.
To begin with, we should recall that in 2008 Clinton was never burdened with a charge that dogged her in the early nineties. Namely, that she was some sort of godless radical feminist, out of touch with normal, church-going American folk.
Let me point out that it took Ms. Clinton years to neutralize this claim. For nearly a decade she has been signaling conspicuously to Americans that faith plays a central part in her life. This was evident in books such as It Takes A Village or Living History. Then there were those bi-partisan prayer sessions in the Senate, the Bible citations, and all that talk about "forgiveness."
Also impressive has been Clinton's ability to juggle both secular and religious constituencies. Aware that the Big Secularism of previous (and failed) democratic presidential hopefuls was not a winner, she tamped down the Church/State themes so beloved to the Party.
Yet she did so without raising eyebrows among Defenders of the Wall (On this score, Senator Obama was less successful). Thus, at last month's Compassion Forum she could deliver an extended homily on grace (as Methodists are wont to do) all the while acknowledging that God Talk might justifiably upset secular Americans.
But the most telling proof that Clinton's Faith and Values politicking worked was her ability to carry so many religious constituencies. The religious state-by-state exit-polling data at our disposal is somewhat unreliable and inconsistent, but three general observations seem warranted. The first is that she consistently won Catholics--often by large margins and in nearly all the delegate-rich states.
The second is that she scored steady, though not massive, victories among Jewish voters. This brings us to Protestants. In the absence of polls that distinguish between Mainliners and Evangelicals in all the contested states, it seems safe to say that she outperformed her opponent among White Protestants.
Obama, for his part, consistently beat her among those who described themselves as weekly or occasional church goers. The more a voter was committed to a house of worship, the more he or she gravitated to the Senator from Illinois. This is not good news for the McCain campaign.
The Clinton F and V team, needless to say, made mistakes as well. Tom Bevan writing for RealClearPolitics makes the case--a compelling one--that her strategists missed a huge opportunity:
Put simply, had Reverend Wright been introduced to voters a few days before the Iowa caucuses, odds are Barack Obama would not be a hair's breadth away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. And even if we assume Obama could have managed to hang on and win Iowa after the appearance of his good reverend, which is debatable, it's a near certainty he would not have won as many primaries and caucuses by as many votes around the country as he did in January and February.
There is certainly something to this, though a few qualifiers are in order. It is debatable whether the Clinton folks, even if they actually recognized the electoral bonanza represented by Wright's oratory, could have done anything about it in the weeks before the January 3 Iowa Caucus.
Aside from the un-seasonal nature of running attack ads during the holidays, such a move would have risked alienating African-American voters. The latter, it may be recalled, were not yet sold on Senator Obama.
One might say that only the deus ex machina that was Fox News could have made Jeremiah Wright the sensation that he quickly became. And like so many others, Fox probably didn't take this Obama guy seriously enough around Christmas time to devote air time to his cantankerous pastor.
Still, Bevan makes an important point about a major strategic blunder. Perhaps the blame lies more with her Opposition Research unit than the Faith and Values team.
In any case, all of America should thank the latter for letting Clinton be her calm self when doing God Talk. Imagine if they had goaded their low-key candidate to try and match her opponent's emotive power. Imagine if they instructed her to out-Obama Obama. Her handlers were smart enough to understand that when it comes to religious rhetoric few can match the very talented Senator from Illinois.
Watch Sally Quinn and I discuss today's primaries and evangelical, Catholic and Jewish voters.
(For more information about religion and the candidates check out Faith 2008 by the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs.)
Jacques Berlinerblau is the Rabbi Harold White Chair in Jewish Civilization in Georgetown's Walsh School of Foreign Service and senior advisor to the Center for Jewish Civilization, where he was director from 2006 to June 2020. Berlinerblau has published on a wide variety of issues ranging from the sociology of heresy and modern Jewish intellectuals to African-American and Jewish-American relations.
