Berkley Center

For the past month and a half, it has been impossible to walk through the streets of Berlin without being assaulted by billboards from the political parties in Germany, jostling for one of the 96 seats assigned to Germany in the European Parliament. We see the smiling, peaceful face of the incumbent Angela Merkel but also cheeky illustrations by the Pirates Party of a statue of a little boy relieving himself saying “I simply cannot, when others watch!"

But the posters which really struck the average passerby were strongly Euroskeptic, proclaiming “Yes to immigration, but NOT in our social safety net!”, announcing that they would like to “Do away with Euro-cracy,” and even the Neo-Nazi party chipping in with “Have a good ride home” against the background of traditionally dressed Turks on a flying carpet.

Speaking to the average German, one gets a sense that they are loath to see these Euroskeptics come to power in the European Parliament. Pointing out the poster of the Neo-Nazi party to me, a friend commented on the tragic existence of the National Democratic Party of Germany (NDP). Another friend simply shook his head when I told him about the multiple anti-immigration and anti-foreigner posters I had seen and reminded me that many of these anti-foreigner sentiments would nevertheless be supported by many lowly-educated locals who were unable to look past the daily frustrations they faced.

And yet, while Euroskeptic parties held on to a relatively strong seven percent of the vote, Germany emerged from the Europawahl (Europe Vote) as the country with one of the lowest percentages of the vote going to Euroskeptics. While the media proclaimed an electoral earthquake and a seismic shift to the extreme right throughout Europe, the incumbent Christian Democratic Union party clung on to the edges of their seats and retained a strong 30 percent of the vote, pulling in the Christian Social Union to form a solid 35.3 percent base. Smaller parties such as the Pirates, NDP, and the Animal Rights Party also hold a seat each.

How, however, did Germany manage to avoid the sharp swing to the right that countries like the United Kingdom (UK Independence Party) and France (Front National) experienced? To understand this, one needs to look at the economic and political conditions in Germany and its role in the European Union. The GDP growth rate of Germany, while having suffered in tandem with the European Union, fell from +3.7 percent in 2006 to -5.15 percent in 2009, but quickly rebounded to +4.01 percent in 2010. In comparison, the United Kingdom, whose GDP growth rate also fell to -5.17 percent in 2009, never truly recovered and rebounded only to reach +1.66 percent in 2010. France, too, recovered from its low of -3.17 percent in 2009 to reach a peak of just +2.03 percent in 2011. Down the spectrum is Greece, whose GDP growth rate fell from +5.51 percent in 2006 to -3.14 percent in 2009 and to its lowest level of -7.11 percent in 2011. Correspondingly, these were also some of the countries in which the Euroskeptic parties claimed a stronghold or made large gains in the EU elections.

Beyond mere numbers is also the oft-held perception of Germany as the de facto leader of the European Union, wielding both a strong economy and political stability. The gradual erosion of influence held by former superpowers like the United Kingdom and France contributes to a growing frustration among the people, who view the introduction of the European Union as a sandpapering of their influence in Europe, an outflow of control from home to Europe (which is in turn dominated by Germany and other larger countries). Fears of their interests no longer being represented have unfortunately led to a backlash of reverse voting. If status quo held only a floundering economy and constrained political influence, then the only way out was that which promised a different (even if not better, at least different) future. And in countries like the United Kingdom, France, and Greece, the Euroskeptic parties promised just as much. Germany, on the other hand, would remain, even with the status quo, a relatively powerful influence in Europe. It would also continue to boast a robust economy. The impetuous to change in Germany, essentially, was not relatively weaker than in the countries where the swing to the right was much more pronounced. Whether such rationality can continue to prevail in Germany through the next few years would then be dependent on the economic and political situation that Germany finds itself in within this timeframe. For now, we can only hope on the best for Europe.