Berkley Center

Over a decade ago, Turkey started down what appeared to be a clear path to membership in the European Union. Much has changed in Turkey and in the EU since then, and a great deal of time and energy has been expended in the name of this process. But today, many are skeptical of whether Turkey will ever reach its final Western destination. Some even say that it never had a chance from the beginning. However, as any runner can attest, tremendous progress can still be made on a treadmill to nowhere.

Since the late years of the Ottoman Empire and the early days of the Kemalist Republic, greater Westernization and integration into Europe have been fundamental aims for Turkish leaders. The country has held roles in various European cooperative efforts, from the Concert of Europe in the nineteenth century to the Council of Europe today.

These efforts, however, have not yet managed to secure Turkey’s place in the flagship of modern European integration. Thus the EU’s formal declaration of candidacy status for Turkey in 1999 was a crucial turning point in the nation’s long-running bid for stronger Western orientation.

To become a member of the EU, candidate countries are expected to meet a set of standards known as the Copenhagen Criteria. An applicant country is expected to be functionally democratic with respect for human rights and the rule of law; have a functioning market economy; and be capable of absorbing the existing body of laws and policies of the Union. Based on these principles, more specific political, economic, and legal conditions are negotiated between the EU and the candidate country through a series of “chapters.”

Since the 1990s, Turkey has embraced one reform after another as the country has slid under the microscope of the EU. Monumental changes have been undertaken, including liberalization of the political system, a strengthening of civil society, development of a market economy, greater integration with foreign markets, and increased trade and investment.

Human rights have also been promoted by abolishing the death penalty, prohibiting torture, and improving women’s, children’s, and unions’ rights. Generally speaking, there has been a unanimously acknowledged rise in Turkey's standard of living over the past decade.

Nevertheless, certain issues remain unaddressed. Currently only 11 out of 35 chapters have been initiated in Turkey, all of which need to be opened, completed, and closed in order for it to be able to join the EU. The opening of chapters occurs solely at the behest of the EU, and there has been much hesitancy from certain leading countries to do so.

In 2006, the Council of Ministers went so far as to freeze eight chapters in response to Turkey’s refusal to open its ports to Cyprus. More generally, the EU remains highly critical of the state of human rights in Turkey. Freedom of expression, minority rights, and gender equality persist as unaddressed hot button issues for many Europeans.

In fact, opposition to Turkey’s accession to the EU is quite daunting. Over half of EU citizens polled by the EU barometer survey said they were against Turkey’s acceptance. European scholars, talking heads, and politicians have all claimed that Turkey’s accession is impossible, arguing that it is simply too poor, too big, and too Muslim for the EU.

Furthermore, the recent proliferation of far-right, anti-immigrant governments in several European countries paints a dim picture for Turkey’s hopes. Big EU players like France and Germany have frequently gone out of their way to encumber Turkey’s accession process.

While the real potential for Turkey’s acceptance in the EU seems slim by most accounts, all is not lost. During a trip to Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Ankara, a deputy minister voiced some insightful and surprisingly clear-eyed views on the accession process. He explained that while Turkey’s EU prospects look bleak, the accession process in and of itself is invaluable. The current AKP government has been able to embrace sweeping reforms that have transformed Turkey into a more prosperous, liberal, and democratic country.

Without the pretext of accession, reforms that have diminished the political clout of the Turkish military and increased religious freedom would be inconceivable. The deputy minister likened the process to a blueprint for bettering Turkey. According to him, Turkey is no longer in the desperate state it was in when it first became a candidate country. He claimed that Turkey is gradually approaching a point in which it no longer needs membership; in fact, if the EU was to make an offer, Turkey could easily say no.

Turkey is a long way from admission into the exclusive club that borders it to the west. There are many reasons to believe that Turkey will never actually become a EU member state. After this year’s euro crisis, exclusion from the common market might even be in Turkey’s best interest.

Regardless of any end point, the mileage that Turkey has achieved from the process itself has changed its economy, politics, and legal system for the better. When all is said and done, if Turkey finds itself without a seat in Brussels, it can still confidently step off the treadmill and stand on the world stage in a better condition than most countries.