A cycle of disappointment has taken hold in the Côte d'Ivoire. Month after month of behind-the-scenes discussions raise hopes; too often they are dashed even before the ink on peace agreements has time to dry. Optimism and commitment wither in the face of continual failure.
One of Africa's glittering success tales in early decades after independence, this nation in West Africa has seen a never-ending crisis since 2002. Seven successive peace agreements are testimony to the cycle of hope and disappointment. The most recent, the 2007 Ouagadougou Accord, still stands, but the path outlined there -- national unification, demobilization of armed forces, free and fair elections, and peace - is on paper, not in reality. So preparing for its 50th anniversary of independence in August, this promising nation of 20 million doesn't have much to celebrate.
A group of eleven Ivorian religious and civil society leaders spent the last week in Washington, trying to find ways out of the impasse. Their hosts were three institutions that have been working for years to help the Côte d'Ivoire: the Community of Sant'Egidio (a Rome-based lay Catholic movement), the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), and the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University. The Ivorian team issued a moving appeal calling for a "new Côte d'Ivoire".
The appeal reflects deep frustration, worry, and a sense of helplessness shared by those working for peace. A vicious cycle of uncertainty feeds cynicism and anger, curtailing investment and jobs, and breeding mistrust. Everyone, they maintain, must take responsibility to act now, with critical milestones looming in the months ahead.
The Côte d'Ivoire conflict is not, as in so many other disputes, religious. Indeed, religious leaders have been credited with fending off a larger national conflagration, and they are prominent among the peacemakers. They have met and worked together for decades, so their meeting in Washington - Muslim, Protestant, Catholic, and traditional leaders - was part of a continuing discussion. The change of venue may have given them a fresh start.
The religious leaders agreed resoundingly that politics, misuse of power and corruption are to blame, not the usual suspects: ethnic divisions, nationality, and religious differences. Côte d'Ivoire is a glorious mix of ethnic and religious groups. An economic powerhouse for decades, the country attracted millions of migrants, most from the drier and poorer Sahelian nations to the north. Somewhere between a fifth and a half of Ivorians were born in other countries. Their status has been a nagging source of tension: are these newcomers Ivorians or immigrants? Can they run for office? Vote? But, the group at USIP argued, the distinction is artificial. Every Ivorian, said Cheikh Boikary Fofana, has in their own family people from different tribal groups, religions, and probably nationalities. The notion of "Ivoirity" is artificial.
Most worrying were stories of a deep sense of hopelessness among young people. The large slums of Abidjan, which I remember for shining hotels and its bizarre ice skating rink in the tropics, are being taken over by brutal gangs that heed no law and no moral call. The processes of social disintegration threaten to become irreversible.
These descriptions brought to mind Robert Kaplan's gloomy 1994 Atlantic article, "The Coming Anarchy" that created a policy buzz at the time. Kaplan saw in Africa's cities a grim picture of poverty and hopelessness to come. His descriptions are evocative: "The Minister's eyes were like egg yolks, an aftereffect of some of the many illnesses, malaria especially, endemic in his country. There was ..an irrefutable sadness in his eyes." "They [young thugs] were like loose molecules in a very unstable social fluid, a fluid that was clearly on the verge of igniting." Kaplan's gloomy message is echoed today by Moises Naim who warns in Illicit of the power of globalization's criminal face and Paul Collier, who wants far more focus on the poorest billion people. Warriors against corruption like Transparency International warn that unless we tackle corruption progress is doomed.
But overall today's consensus is far more hopeful than Kaplan's conclusions. We celebrate African successes which affirm that conflicts can be resolved with patience and determination. With jobs and education young people see a promising future. Religious and ethnic difference can be a source of richness and strength, not discord.
The appeal of the Ivorian interfaith group (joined by human rights activists) is for good sense and dialogue. They warn against the danger of letting the perfect (perfectly prepared elections in this case) be the enemy of the good (accepting even imperfect electoral rolls so voting can go ahead).
The Ivorian visitors said that they had traveled far, to Washington, only to recognize that it was at home and among themselves that they must find the answers. But, they also repeated, outsiders, especially the United States, can help. We can, by our interest and concern, reassure those who stand for election that even if they lose they will have a role. And if they win they will find friends who will work with them to translate the promise of peace into real opportunity.
