The presidential race has narrowed considerably since the Millennial Values Symposium. According to the media and pollster intelligentsia, President Obama’s lackluster performance in the first debate allowed Governor Romney to thrust forward in numerous critical swing states, making the contest into, well, much more of a contest. Despite Obama’s victories in the second and third debate, Romney’s first debate burst
seems to have staying power. He has moved Florida into his likely column, is ahead in Virginia by the slightest of margins, remains in a statistical tie in Colorado, and is within striking distance of capturing the lead in Ohio—the state predicted to decide the election.
These circumstances raise the stakes for Millennial voters. Indeed, as the election draws near, one question that must loom heavy in the minds of both candidates is in what numbers will Millennials come out to the polls. During the last presidential election, the Democrat's campaign not only garnered an unprecedented 66 percent of the youth vote, but it motivated this generation
to cast their ballots in record numbers. Notwithstanding the fact that Obama’s victory did not hinge on the youth’s extraordinary turnout, it is very likely that he will need them this November. So, what predictions can be made of Millennial turnout? If we look
to the survey, we might say that it depends on the number of new 18 year olds who accompanied their parents to the voting booth when they were children—since, in the survey, 84 percent of Millennials who reported having this experience are registered to vote and, of that group, 66 percent say that they are “absolutely” going to cast their ballots this year.
In reality, forecasting Millennial turnout is almost an impossible exercise. There is not enough historical data that can be used to speculate into the future. It might be that 2008 will be viewed as an anomaly that was caused by the extraordinary nature of Obama’s campaign. Alternatively, it may prove that ‘08 marked a permanent change in youth participation in presidential elections. Only time will tell—but for the sake of ever-greater democratic engagement, let’s hope that for the past two decades, parents have been unable to find babysitters on election days.
